The rumour mill has been surprisingly quiet ahead of the 2026 Autumn Budget. In tax circles, that’s either a sign that nothing major is coming… or the complete opposite.
With Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver the Budget on 28 October, businesses, investors and individuals are all asking the same question: what could change?
Crystal balls are in short supply at CP, but we have got hundreds of tax geeks who’ve been scanning the horizon for the tax, pensions, investment and business measures that could make an appearance.
THE BIG ONE: CAPITAL GAINS TAX
If there’s one area generating more speculation than any other, it’s Capital Gains Tax (CGT).
The Government has repeatedly committed to not increasing the main rates of Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT, leaving relatively few places to raise additional revenue. That makes CGT a natural candidate.
Do we expect a dramatic overhaul?
Probably not.
A modest increase feels more likely than a wholesale alignment of CGT rates with Income Tax rates, which could risk dampening entrepreneurship and investment. Property and other non-business assets may be particularly vulnerable if changes do materialise.
If you’re already considering a business sale, share disposal or significant investment exit, now could be a sensible time to review your plans.
POTENTIAL CHANGES FOR INDIVIDUALS & FAMILIES
Inheritance Tax: Small Tweaks Rather Than Revolution?
We don’t expect sweeping changes to IHT, but several targeted reforms remain possible.
Among the areas being discussed:
- Potential changes to gifting rules
- A possible extension of the gifting period from seven to ten years
- A lifetime cap on tax-free gifts
- Further detail on pensions becoming subject to IHT from April 2027
While nothing appears imminent, families considering significant wealth transfers may wish to review their plans sooner rather than later.
Income Tax: The Freeze Continues
Don’t expect headline Income Tax rates to move. The Government’s manifesto commitments make that politically difficult.
Instead, fiscal drag is likely to remain the Chancellor’s weapon of choice. With thresholds frozen until 2031, more people will find themselves paying higher rates of tax as incomes rise over time.
It’s less dramatic than a rate rise. But the effect can be remarkably similar.
Pensions & Wealth
On pensions, we’re not expecting major changes to tax reliefs or tax-free cash allowances. The practical complexities, particularly around public sector schemes, make significant reform unlikely this time around.
Elsewhere, there could be movement in the property market.
One area worth watching is a potential lowering of the so-called “mansion tax” threshold from £2 million to £1.5 million. Meanwhile, reports suggest a new government-backed first-time buyer scheme could be introduced to support housing market activity.
What will the Budget mean for you?
Once the Chancellor has delivered the Autumn Budget and the dust settles, our Cooper Parry Wealth and Tax specialists will be cutting through the headlines to explore what the changes could mean for you, your money and your family’s financial future.
Join our exclusive post-Budget webinar and secure your place today.
POTENTIAL CHANGES FOR BUSINESSES
Good News for Entrepreneurs?
Following a wide-ranging consultation earlier this year, there is optimism that the Government could announce reforms to the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS).
Potential changes could include simplifying the rules that were originally introduced to satisfy EU requirements and removing barriers that many growing businesses and investors have long viewed as unnecessarily restrictive.
For innovative, ambitious businesses seeking investment, that would be a welcome development.
Capital Allowances & Tax Reliefs
One of the more technical areas of the Budget could involve Land Remediation Relief.
Following a recent consultation, the Government may confirm changes to how the relief operates, particularly around eligibility and the benefit available to developers.
Beyond that, we don’t currently expect significant changes to the wider Capital Allowances regime.
VAT: One to Watch
Several VAT developments could be announced.
The most likely is a new zero rate for qualifying land sales intended for social housing development. If introduced, this could remove VAT friction for housing providers while preserving VAT recovery for sellers.
Other possibilities include:
- Extension of temporary electricity VAT relief
- Changes to online marketplace VAT responsibilities
- Further consultation outcomes on overseas sellers
- Continued lobbying for a reduced 10% VAT rate for hospitality, although we think that remains unlikely for now
Trade, Customs & Duties
It’s harder to predict specific announcements here, but a number of areas are firmly on our watchlist:
- Fuel duty
- The UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
- Removal of the £135 import threshold for low-value goods
- Vaping duties
- Gaming duties
- Broader measures aimed at stimulating growth and competitiveness
AUTUMN BUDGET 2026: WHAT’S ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN?
Are any of these predictions nailed on? Of course not.
We’re advisers, not insiders.
But when 28 October comes around and the final announcements are made, we’ll be sharing our expert analysis and helping you understand what it all means for you, your family and your business.
NEED ADVICE AHEAD OF THE BUDGET?
Whether you’re planning a business sale, considering succession, reviewing international structures, preparing for investment or simply wondering what the Chancellor might throw at us next, CP’s specialists are ready to help.
Get in touch today and stay tuned for our Autumn Budget reaction and analysis on 28 October.
