As high-growth companies continue to eye the US as a prime destination for expansion, understanding the economic landscape, tariff environment and strategic pathways to scale has never been more important.
In our latest webinar hosted by James Peck, Head of Tech & High Growth Tax at Cooper Parry, we were joined by Simeon Wallis (Chief Investment Officer, Aprio) and Jay Cho (Managing Director, Customs & Tariffs, Aprio) for a deep dive into what high-growth businesses should expect – and prepare for – as they scale into America in 2026 and beyond.
Check out the key takeaways below.
2026 SNAPSHOT: US MACROECONOMIC UPDATE
Simeon kicked off proceedings with a comprehensive overview of the US economic outlook – one defined by resilience, structural change, and a return to pre‑GFC dynamics.
Twin Engines Driving the US Economy
Two key forces are expected to underpin economic performance in 2026:
- Liquidity– Anticipated Fed actions, including interest rate reductions and balance sheet adjustments, are likely to provideadditional liquidity to the system.
• Productivity – AI-led productivity gains are now visible in the data, with revenue-per-employee improving across both large corporates and, increasingly, mid-sized businesses.
A Boost from Major Events
Two unique tailwinds are expected to have a positive economic impact in 2026:
- The US ‘Semiquincentennial’ (250th Anniversary) – Expected increases in consumer tourism and domestic spending.
- The 2026 World Cup – Significant inflows of international travellers benefiting at least 10 major US cities.
A Shift in the Structural Makeup of the US Economy
The US has transitioned from a heavily cyclical economy (manufacturing + retail) to one dominated by healthcare employment – a far more stable sector. This shift reduces volatility and increases the likelihood of more stable, range-bound interest rates.
Consumer Health: A Two-Wallet Economy
While overall consumer balance sheets are strong, the US is experiencing a K-shaped consumer split:
- Higher-income consumers: Wealthier, more insulated, and still spending.
- Lower-income consumers: Experiencing wage stagnation, higher delinquencies (especially student loans), and tighter spending power.
Stimulus-like tax changes in 2026 are expected to temporarily ease this pressure, increasing average refunds by ~$1,000.
Business Conditions
- Corporate earnings expectations remain strong, signalling confidence across large, mid-cap, and small-cap companies.
- Bank lending and liquidity indicators are positive, supporting growth and investment.
- M&A activity, while still below long-term averages, is rebounding after the 2023 trough.
The AI Productivity Wave
AI is now becoming “the new electricity” and fundamental infrastructure. Key takeaways include:
- Productivity growth is surpassing long-term trends.
- Companies increasingly reference AI in earnings calls, especially regarding labour reduction, cost efficiencies, and sales & marketing gains.
- US hyperscalers are investing $1.3 trillion annually into AI and data centres.
US MARKET CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-GROWTH BUSINESSES
For high-growth scale-ups – particularly venture-backed and private equity-backed firms – the US remains a highly attractive market with strong fundamentals:
- Predictable interest rate environment reduces financing uncertainty.
- Record levels of business formation show market confidence.
- Continued investment in large-tech AI infrastructure creates downstream opportunities in SaaS, hardware and services.
- Healthy corporate earnings expectations support B2B and enterprise sales cycles.
Sector-Level Strength
Aprio highlighted further opportunities in:
- Consumer products
- Manufacturing & distribution
- Hospitality, restaurants & franchise models
- Financial services, including fintech & private equity ecosystems
In short: despite global uncertainty, the US remains one of the strongest-performing, most resilient economies for high-growth companies seeking scale.
EXPANSION STRATEGY: REDUCING RISK & MAXIMISING OPPORTUNITY
Jay outlined several practical mitigation strategies that high-growth businesses can adopt when exporting to – or manufacturing for – the US.
Classification Review (HTS Codes)
Misclassification is one of the biggest causes of overpaying tariffs.
- Correct 10‑digit HTS codes can dramatically reduce tariff exposure.
- Some products qualify for alternative classifications that lower or eliminate duties.
- Even slight changes to product characteristics can materially change tariff status.
Country of Origin Strategy
Long-term structural moves include:
- Relocating final assembly to Southeast Asia
- Conducting “substantial transformation” to shift origin away from high-tariff countries
- Leveraging country-based trade exemptions
Customs Valuation Optimisation
Legitimate pathways include:
- Separating software licence fees from hardware
- Removing non-dutiable costs (admin fees, certain engineering components)
- Revising supply chain transaction structures
First Sale Rule
A widely used strategy allowing importers to base customs value on the manufacturer’s price, not the middleman’s markup.
Can reduce duties by 10–40% depending on margins.
Documentation & Compliance
Every mitigation strategy must be:
- Well documented
- Aligned with CBP regulations
- Reviewed by a third-party specialist
Because penalties can reach 40% of the dutiable value, compliance is not optional.
REAL-WORLD SUCCESS STORIES
The Aprio team shared a number of compelling examples, showcasing the difference that specialist advice can make when you’re scaling into the US.
EV Battery Manufacturer
- Imported lithium battery cells were classified as “battery parts” (25% duty).
- Aprio successfully reclassified them as “complete batteries”.
- Result: millions in tariff refunds and ongoing duty rate reduction.
Similarly, a medical device manufacturer successfully segmented non-dutiable software, reducing their customs value – and – by 20%.
COMMON PITFALLS TO AVOID:
High-growth companies entering the US market often face several avoidable challenges:
- Assuming Your Freight Forwarder Handles Compliance
Legally, the importer of record is responsible, not the broker.
- Waiting Too Long for Tariff Refund Procedures
CBP will likely apply strict cut-offs once the IEPA process opens.
- Misunderstanding Product Classification
Incorrect HTS codes are one of the most expensive and common errors.
- Overlooking Supply Chain Structuring Opportunities
Many companies miss out on the first-sale rule or “substantial transformation” opportunities simply because they weren’t aware.
- Not Stress-Testing US Consumer Behaviour
Ignoring the “two-wallet economy” can lead to failed market-entry assumptions.
- Underestimating Compliance Documentation
Without airtight documentation, even valid refund claims can be denied.
SCALING INTO THE US: FINAL THOUGHTS
Expanding into the US offers enormous potential for high-growth companies. But with opportunity comes complexity.
From AI-led productivity acceleration to evolving tariff structures and a shifting consumer landscape, the businesses that win will be those who prepare early, stay compliant, and adopt proactive strategies.
If you’d like help navigating US expansion – from tax to tariffs, trade strategy to go-to-market – the Cooper Parry and Aprio teams are here to support you.
